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An effective forecasting method to cover your supply

< 36kVA

Augmented Energy offers a long-term forecast for your portfolio. Each day, we generate a forecast of the net consumption and production in your portfolio at a half-hourly interval, from D+1 to Y+3.

As a supplier, you need to apply different forecasting methods depending on the contracts/profiles of your consumers. These are divided into three categories:

Forecast for Profiled Consumers (small consumers): Determine the number of consumers and their respective Usage Factor for each profile. Then, for each half-hour interval, multiply this Usage Factor (in kW) by a profile coefficient calculated by the Distribution System Operator (DSO) and adjusted to normal temperature to obtain an estimated load curve.
Forecast for Remote Metered Consumers (large-scale sites): Use the actual historical load curve, adjusted for weather anomalies, if the site is temperature-sensitive.

> 36kVA

Forward Transactions and Communication with RTE

Augmented Energy manages the submission of Block Exchange Programs (PEB) to RTE.

Like children playing with Duplo bricks, market participants exchange blocks with other market participants. When two parties conduct transactions known as "OTC," outside of an exchange, they must report the exchanged volumes to RTE so that these can be accounted for in their respective balancing perimeters. This is known as a Block Exchange Program (PEB).

For each exchange between two balance responsible parties, each PEB requires a dual declaration, one for each counterparty.

Portfolio Hedging Optimization Tool (Shaping)

Through the Noos platform, you have access to a portfolio hedging optimization tool (shaping) and two interfaces: one for viewing completed transactions and another for displaying historical spot and forward prices. Augmented Energy integrates and accounts for your forward transactions.

What is shaping?

Your goal is to minimize the difference between your load curve (the gray curve) and the combination of PEAK & BASELOAD forward contracts (the red curve). In July, for example, the portfolio supply is over-covered, while in January, a small portion of supply remains uncovered. Shaping can be done in two ways:

- By Volume: Calculate the contract combination that minimizes the residual volume position (over-covered or under-covered).

- By Value: Calculate the contract combination that minimizes the residual position in euros. This approach is more effective but slightly more complex, as it requires the Hourly Price Forward Curve (HPFC). The load curve is multiplied by the HPFC, and contracts are purchased to best match this value. If the HPFC changes, the optimal contract combination will also vary, requiring the supplier to make new transactions.

Interface d'Augmented Energy

Augmented Energy supports you in managing the hedging of your portfolio. We offer a range of services to fully meet your needs.

Augmented Energy offers you a long-term forecast for your portfolio. Every day, we provide a forecast of the net consumption and production of your portfolio at a half-hourly interval from D+1 to Y+3.

Through the Noos platform, you will have access to a decision-support tool that allows you to break down the forecasted electricity volumes of your portfolio into tradable forward contract volumes. Additionally, there are two interfaces: one for viewing completed transactions and another for viewing historical spot and forward prices.

We closely monitor the evolution of your portfolio, and in case of significant data changes, we send you exposure alerts.

To ensure the best possible management of your hedging, the experts at Augmented Energy organize a monthly meeting with you to discuss the hedging strategy for your portfolio.

For more information or any additional questions, please contact us at: sales@augmented.energy